Booman, the Anti-Kos, seems to think that Obama has it in the bag. I agree.
Anyone that reads this blog knows that I am pulling for Barack Obama and that I have low personal regard for Mrs. and Mr. Clinton. So, yeah, I am biased. But Obama won the night tonight by every available measure. Chuck Todd on MSNBC has done the national delegate estimate (using the most optimistic Clinton campaign projections for California) and got: Obama 841 Clinton 837. It will probably be a slightly larger lead for Obama, but not more than 15-20 additional delegates.
Obama didn't just win the delegate battle, he won the states battle. Obama won (14) Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Alabama, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, Idaho, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Alaska. Clinton won (8) New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Arkansas, California, Arizona, and Oklahoma.
Then there is the expectations game. Obama had two big upsets in Connecticut and Missouri, while Clinton had none.
The next set of primaries favors Obama. Of course, it will never be an inevitable win for the first viable African American candidate. Even The Great Orange Satan has it right:
So how will this shake out? Beats me. But task one is for Obama to survive this Tuesday. If he does, task two is for Hillary to survive this month. If she does, then they both have to survive the mini-Super Tuesday on March 4th. If they do, this thing goes to Pennsylvania. Or to North Carolina.
Or to the convention.
You know, when I was growing up as a young black man, other older African Americans would say something to me at various times, usually at church or a social function. And what they often said was "We are not loved." Just out of the blue. I always wondered what that meant as a young person full of optimism, back then anyway. Now, as a grumpy older black person, and winner of about $20000 grand from discrimination lawsuits against two allegedly "liberal" institutions, I now realize that was a slightly more subtle way of saying "We are a deeply hated people". Last hired, first fired. Watch as black men with college degrees get turned away from the job while the white man who uses yinz as a noun and no high school diploma not only gets the job but also gets the promotion. If you're a lucky black person, you might even get to train him. I live in a country where black men are, really, if you look at it, groomed for the prison system and/or low grade wage slavery where you never ever get to get out.
That's why I didn't originally endorse Obama. We're not loved. Really. I still think the safest bet was John Edwards. You run a risk nominating either a woman or an African American to the presidency. But if it's a choice between the Clintons and Obama, then Obama is clearly the better choice. Both have strongly hinted that they're corporate dems which means, probably, very little changes in the lives of ordinary Americans. On the other hand, I think that when the Democratic Party controls the White House then things can get a little better. Sane people on the courts would be nice too.There would be no Americorps if Bill Clinton hadn't become president. True, when I worked for Americorps I worked at a church which is as symbolic of the Clinton legacy as anything (I never told any of my students to pray though. I told them to think their way out of problems). Remember: The Clintons left the country in the hands of fascist republicans and a cave in mentality that has really turned both parties into the servants of the Republican ruling classes. I guess I've seen what the Clintons have done--and I also have this sneaky feeling that they didn't mind losing democratic party majorities in both houses because it strengthened the presidency and their own personal war against the party's base--and I think its time to give a family other than Bush or Clinton a chance to do good or even ill. Couldn't do any worse quite frankly.
One more thing on why the Edwards choice wasn't only the most progressive choice, but the safest. If you were appalled by the tactics of the Clintons (okay mostly Bill. He loves his hawt wife. Who knew.), then just wait for the GOP onslaught. Expect Obama's middle name to be used in all of those unauthorized yet effective 527 ads. Horrible stuff. I mean, I think the country is ready for a big change but it won't be easy. Not to mention that the country's real terrorist threat comes from the American right. They're the ones who kill with impunity. I like to think those Nazi Stormfront groups will just sit on their hands and blog about it, terrified of secret service protection but I doubt it....
Mittens dropping out isn't good. Mike Huckabee is a nightmare candidate in that he's completely likeable, strikes me as authentic (non McCain trophy wife and all...) and the Republican wall streeters hate him. Now Mike gets a one on one race with McCain, or Bob Dole II, who I think is a very beatable candidate in a general election. I'd much rather face Bob Dole II in a general election than Mike Huckabee. Not that I would vote for MIke. See here and here. More GOP awfulness...Related: Why Richard Dawkins is a mean ol' atheist.
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